Second-guessing Viewers is a Tough Business

Second-guessing Viewers is a Tough Business

Andy Marken April 4, 2024

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When two hunters go after the same prey, they usually end up shooting each other in the back. And we don't want to shoot each other in the back. - Col. Douglas Mortimer, For a Few Dollars More, Constantin Films, 1965

We can't wait for the winter/spring bridge to be behind us.

Yes, it's the cold and slush but it also means the constant parade of award extravaganzas are in the rear-view mirror and we won't have to endure all of the breathtaking excitement for another nine months.

Golden Globes, Emmies, BAFTA, Oscars are all mixed in with the fantastic film festivals like Cannes, TIFCA, Sundance, Berlinale, Tribeca and SXSW. They celebrate the good stuff from awhile back and the great content that is being delivered up for judges to crown as the cr me de la cr me.

The accolades flow like studio/network party champagne, proving that movie theaters and day/time TV still reign supreme even as all of the movies/shows sooner or later (usually sooner) are streamed and rated by the ultimate judges viewers.

First, they have to buy or build the content they think will capture the most eyeballs. Then, they have to slot it (somewhere) then they have to promote it (everywhere), then count the seats in seats (home or away) and even before the numbers are in, they're promoting the project to the industry in hopes of getting a statue or two to give the film/show a second viewer boost (and bragging rights to prove they made the right call).

Then, they have to start the process all over again for the next project. If they smell something isn't right, some of the projects get killed before the final cut, others are simply shelved for a tax write-off, or they're shown until the studio/network think they're about to peak and pulled to be put in the library for later.

Total Budget - Investing in a film production is just the beginning of the cash outlay needed to get the project on the many screens, including the marketing investment which can quickly climb if folks want the project considered for an award. That's where the serious work is done.

But still, the money is spent especially if it's a movie that is more easily tracked financially.

Look at the chart above. The budget is important but the cost of marketing the project dwarfs the price of the people and production.

The storyline can be solid, the people dynamic, the production/post done to perfection and still

It's what makes the industry so d*** much fun and the weird thing is they never give an award/statue for great marketing especially when so many avenues for making money with a project have faded.

Happy Returns - Many of the earlier avenues for making money on a film have dwindled such as pay TV and discs; but most of the studio/streamers plan on increasing their returns with content for their streaming services and increasingly, their ad-supported services.

The market is no longer measured by what happens at home but what is invested and earned globally.

Increasingly, studios/streamers are sorta interested in what happens in the theater, but the cost/return potential isn't nearly as good as what is earned out there.

Dropping the project into a TV schedule gives a little ROI. Knocking out DVDs provides even less. Other ancillary channels are okay, but the real opportunity/challenge is signing up subscribers everywhere.

Home View - A movie, even one that has a decent global theatrical release, has more opportunities to expand views on a global scale as subscription and ad-supported streaming increases.

And we're not talking about small potatoes, or a few tickets sold.

We're talking about 8B plus folks, 1.72B TV households and don't forget emerging countries like Africa where people may not have a TV, but they have a smartphone that is their everything screen.

More than 200 services located in the Americas and countless more around the globe all want to capture a big chunk of that family entertainment spend.

Because subscribers are departing scheduled TV, they're being very cautious about how they're investing their content dollars.

In 2022; broadcast, cable and digital networks rolled out 2,264 new series in the Americas. Last year 1,784 and this year is even more bleak.

Where do you think most of them land?

Yep!

The day of following a show for five, 10, 15 plus years is gone.

The long, long series will stick around until the actors retire or the audience fades. But don't worry if you're peak TV faithful, you won't find any dead airtime when you switch the channels because there's always the cheap stuff games, reality and unscripted stuff.

The younger studio/network/streamer services are investing as fast as they can to capture as many of the finicky subscribers as possible; and unless you have a good read on the subscriber viewing habit database, it's a tough haul.

But there's money in them there clouds just ask the folks who know how to process, mash and work the data.

Take a closer look at where the major streamers stand now when it comes to subscribers and average revenue per user (ARPU), according to the companies' most recent earnings reports.

Netflix: 247.15 million. Netflix still sets the standard for streaming services, at least in terms of global reach and is expected to add 10.4M by the next reporting period because of their lower-cost ad-supported offering

Amazon Prime Video: 200 million

Disney : 150.2 million.

Max: 95.1 million (sort of)

Paramount : 63.4 million.

Hulu: 48.5 million.

Peacock: 28 million.

ESPN : 26 million.

Apple TV ; 25M (est)

Starz - 15.79M

Minimize Churn - Streaming service bosses understand that there is a heavy investment needed to acquire a subscriber and e

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