Nielsen: Global Consumer Confidence Holds Steady to Close 0; While Spending Intentions Retreat to Q4 0 Levels

New York Jan. 29, 2014 Global consumer confidence held steady at 94 for three consecutive quarters, ending 2013 one point higher than it started (Q1 2013) and three points higher than the same time period the previous year (Q4 2012), according to consumer confidence findings from Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and insights into what consumers watch and buy.

Asia-Pacific posted the only regional confidence gain from the previous quarter, increasing one index point to 105, four points higher than Q4 2012. Compared to Q3 2013, consumer confidence declined three index points in North America (95), two points in Middle East/Africa (90) and one point in Europe (73); confidence remained flat in Latin America with an index of 94.

Throughout 2013, consumers around the world remained in a virtual holding pattern as global unemployment showed few signs of progress during the year, said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, chief economist at The Cambridge Group, a part of Nielsen. Recovery continues to move very slowly and is hampered by cash-strapped consumers who grapple with having little discretionary income after paying essential expenses. As 2014 progresses, a brighter outlook is expected, but sluggishness will continue until there is a marked improvement in the jobless rate and wages go up commensurate with rising costs.

The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, established in 2005, measures consumer confidence, major concerns, and spending intentions among more than 30,000 respondents with Internet access* in 60 countries. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism. In the latest round of the survey, conducted November 11 29, 2013, consumer confidence increased in 43 percent of markets measured by Nielsen, compared to 57 percent in Q3 2013.

Indonesia reported the highest consumer confidence index (124) for the fourth consecutive quarter, increasing four index points compared to Q3. Portugal, Italy, Croatia and Slovenia each reported the lowest consumer confidence index of 44. Colombia reported the biggest quarter-on-quarter index increase of nine points for a score of 93; Portugal saw the biggest decline, decreasing 11 index points.

Cash-Strapped Consumers Show Spending Restraint Nielsen information shows that around the world, discretionary spending intentions declined across all categories measured in Q4 2013 and largely returned to Q4 2012 levels. Spending on out-of-home entertainment (28%) decreased 7 percentage points from Q3 to hold steady with Q4 2012. Intentions to spend on new clothes (31%), spend on holidays/vacations (32%), and invest in stocks and mutual funds (19%) each decreased 6 percentage points from the previous quarter, while saving intentions (47%), spending on new technology (24%) and spending on home improvement projects (20%) declined 5 percentage points each within range of the same results from one year ago. Globally, 15 percent of online respondents said they had no spare cash, an increase from 13 percent reported in the previous quarter and on par with Q4 2012 findings.

Growth in developing markets is slowing, and with weaker prospects than before, they are competing for investment and financial resources as advanced economies recover, said Dr. Bala. Recession-minded consumers who are already challenged by rising living expenses showed a reluctance to spend leading up to the holiday season and kept their money in their wallets.

Recessionary Sentiment Lingers According to Nielsens survey, more than half (57%) of global respondents believed their country was in an economic recession in Q4 2013, a one-point decrease from the previous quarter and a two-point decrease from the same period last year (Q4 2012).

Respondents in three-quarters of the countries surveyed feel more recessionary effects now than they did at the start of the recession. Since Q1 2008, 23 countries have reported double-digit recessionary sentiment increases, with the biggest changes in Finland ( 68 percentage points), Netherlands ( 47pp), Poland ( 43pp), Vietnam ( 37pp), Russia ( 31pp), Czech Republic ( 29pp), Ireland ( 25pp), Venezuela ( 24pp), Mexico ( 22p), and India ( 20pp).

Meanwhile, recessionary sentiment has gradually declined among the worlds largest economies, including the U.S., which has reported a decrease in recessionary sentiment of 14 percentage points since Q1 2008. Germany has seen a decline of 9 percentage points over the same period, and Japans recessionary outlook is down 3 percentage points.

While the recovery has been painfully slow, it is important to point out that recovery in many key economies is on the right track, said Dr. Bala. The U.S., Germany, Japan and 33 other countries, which includes China, the United Kingdom and France, each ended 2013 with higher consumer confidence scores than at the start the year.

Highlights from Around the World In North America, U.S. consumer confidence declined three index points in Q4 2013 to 95, an increase of one point from the start of the year and five points from the same time period the previous year (Q4 2012). The recession was on the minds of nearly three-quarters (71%) of Americans, and the economy was the top concern for one-fourth (26%). Fourth-quarter discretionary spending intentions in the U.S. also declined from the gains reported in Q3 2013.

While U.S. consumer confidence declined in the fourth quarter, the country is poised to be the key growth engine of the world economy in 2014, said Dr. Bala. One of the biggest challenges for the U.S. consumer will be getting wages and incomes to grow to support consumer demand, especially for the middle class.

Spending setbacks for many Americans translated to weaker-than-expected holiday sales at retail, said James Russo, se

LINK:	http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/press-room/2014/nielsen-global-consumer-c...
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