Sony Pixel Power calrec Sony

Buyers Downplay Strong Scatter On Eve of Upfront

03/05/2016

WHY THIS MATTERS

The upfront remains the time when the bulk of advertising inventory is sold by broadcast and cable TV networks, setting the tone for the season.

Related: Digital Video Market Surges Into NewFronts

This years upfront feels much different than the last couple. Scatter has been exceedingly hot and that's boosted ad revenue for most of the programmers the last few quarters.

Second-quarter scatter has long been a bellwether for the upfront, but even during the fourth quarter and first quarter, scatter market volume and pricing have encouraged senior media executives such as CBS' Leslie Moonves and Discovery's David Zaslav to comment on how strong they expect pricing and volume to be in the upfront.

But the upfront is also being shaped, as usual, by additional factors. There's been a perception that last year, marketers put a lot of money into digital, they didn't get the returns they were expecting and many brought money back to TV.

At the same time, the media-buying world has been turned upside down by a continuous parade of big brands with billion-dollar budgets reviewing their account and switching agencies. Among the biggest companies conducting reviews were Procter & Gamble, Unilever, General Mills, Johnson & Johnson, BMW, Visa and Volkswagen.

While those accounts shifted, some buys might have been delayed, pushing money into scatter where prices were considerably higher. There could be a priority on getting money down in the upfront, if only to control costs.

There was also a consolidation at advertising agency holding company Publicis. After many years of having its big agencies-Starcom, Mediavest and Zenith-negotiate upfront deals separately, Publicis has formed the Publicis Media Exchange and will have media buying veteran (and B&C Hall of Famer) John Muszynski handling the negotiation for its biggest clients with the top networks.

In some ways, Publicis' new approach resembles those of GroupM and Interpublic Group, which centralized their agencies' upfront negotiations years ago.

Another change last year came when longtime Magna Global exec Todd Gordon left to join programmatic company Tube Mogul. He was replaced by David Cohen, who has been with Universal McCann.

Related: Market Movers: Broadcast Sales Execs

Some network sales execs note that the increased concentration on the buy side reduces the bulk of the upfront to five agencies talking to a half-dozen media companies. In a year when there's a buyers' market, that could make life tough for the networks. But this year, when it looks like a sellers' market, there's not as much pressure.

To get a clearer picture of the forces facing the upfront, B&C business editor Jon Lafayette asked a series of questions to some of the most influential media buyers. Here are the edited responses of those who participated.

TV executives are unanimously talking about how hot the scatter market is and how that will translate into a strong upfront. Are you advising your clients to put more money into this upfront? And what pricing do you foresee and how can you moderate the increases?

David Cohen, Magna Global: We believe the scatter market strength has definitely been driven by the lack of supply due to ratings declines. In primetime alone, we have seen 2 years of ratings decline [-17%] against adult audiences. We've seen media partners come in and out of sale as they try to make advertisers good due to ratings shortfalls. Magna predicted this trend, as we saw clients requiring greater flexibility and holding out for the calendar year upfront and scatter markets. We believe that at the end of the year, spending will still be flat to only slightly up vs. a year ago.

These dynamics, coupled with the impending reduction of advertising loads (in cable) will lead to an inflationary upfront market. We are predicting high-single-digit increases, which is forcing a re-evaluation of other options for clients. With fully 30% of video consumption happening outside of linear television-over-the-top, subscription video-on-demand, online video-we believe the market is ripe for a significant share shift out of linear TV and into other video channels.

Chris Geraci, OMD: Our guidance, with regard to upfront budget levels and price projections, is client-specific, complex and proprietary. However, I can tell you that our approach to the upfront market is zero-based and primarily forward-looking. While a strong scatter market in one broadcast year may indeed have direct correlation to the marketplace dynamics of the preceding upfront, it does not automatically indicate strength in the approaching market. This is especially true in an environment where the landscape and the consideration set of video options are changing so rapidly.

Mike Law, Amplifi : Some things never change during the pre upfront season the sales side has always talked about the strength of the market! The dynamics of the market are that supply on linear TV is shrinking and demand at this stage appears to be flat. This lends itself to an inflationary market. We need to be flexible with our dollars and think about where video supply exists across all screens to help mitigate inflation. We work with our clients to spend dollars when the time is right, be that upfront or scatter.

Are clients really moving money from digital back to TV? What digital video products provide an alternative to TV?

Cohen: We are not seeing a movement from digital budgets back to TV, in fact-for the first time ever-we are predicting that digital budgets will exceed television budgets in the U.S. Full-episode players, VOD, OTT, YouTube, Facebook and other high-quality video networks are viable alternatives to traditional TV.

Geraci: The question really shouldn't be whether money is moving from digital back to TV,' but how much fluidi
LINK: http://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/currency/buyers-downplay-strong-...
See more stories from bandc

Most recent headlines

03/06/2024

Dalet and Veritone Reach Agreement to Distribute, Transact and Monetize Media Archives

Dalet, a leading technology and service provider for media-rich organizations, a...

28/04/2024

Mediahaus delivers the first SRT live-streaming sports production over 5G with URSA Broadcast G2

Mediahaus delivers the first SRT live-streaming sports production over 5G with U...

29/03/2024

Dalet to Demo AI-Enabled Production, Automation and Monetization at NAB Show

PARIS Dalet has announced that during the 2024 NAB Show (booth #W1713), attendees can experience firsthand Dalet's collaborative, AI-enabled workflows that ...

29/03/2024

DirecTV Inks Deal to Carry 2024 Colorado Rockies Games

DENVER AND EL SEGUNDO, Calif. DirecTV has announced a new agreement with Major League Baseball that will allow Colorado Rockies fans to see this season's ga...

29/03/2024

S&P: Media, Telecom M&A Plunges to 13-Month Low

S&P Global Market Intelligence has released new data showing that dealmaking in the North America for media and telecom companies remains in the doldrums....

29/03/2024

NAB Show: Pebble Launches PRIMA Software Platform

EPSOM, Surrey, UK The automation, content management, and integrated channel specialist Pebble, has announced that it will be launching a new software platform ...

29/03/2024

Gray Television to Air Arena Football League Local Games

ATLANTA Gray Television Inc. has inked a multi-year agreement with the Arena Football League to bring Saturday arena football games over-the-air to local audien...

29/03/2024

Muvhango: Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]

Muvhango: Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]Stay up to date with the latest episodes of your favourite South African soapie on The South African webs...

29/03/2024

Gqeberha: The Empire - Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]

Gqeberha: The Empire - Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]Stay up to date with the latest episodes of your favourite South African soapie on The South...

29/03/2024

My Brother's Keeper: Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]

My Brother's Keeper: Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]Stay up to date with the latest episodes of your favourite South African soapie on The Sou...

29/03/2024

Umkhokha: The Curse - Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]

Umkhokha: The Curse - Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]Stay up to date with the latest episodes of your favourite South African soapie on The South ...

29/03/2024

Skeem Saam: Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]

Skeem Saam: Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]Missed an episode of Skeem Saam? No problem! Watch the latest episode of your favourite South African s...

29/03/2024

House of Zwide: Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]

House of Zwide: Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]Stay up to date with the latest episode of South African soapie House of Zwide on The South African...

28/03/2024

No votes for all

Out of an estimated 20,000 journalists in Pakistan, less than one thousand are women according to a recent Gender Disparity Report published by the Internationa...

28/03/2024

Give Me the Backstory: Get to Know 8 Women Filmmakers With Shorts at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival

A still from Jasmin Baumgartner's Bye Bye, Bowser, which screened as part ...

28/03/2024

The Best Shared Storage For Video Production

alt= class=wp-image-12214 data-lazy-src=/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Best-Shared-Storage-EVO-logo-960x540-1.jpg/> Embarking on a cinematic journey or crafting a ...

28/03/2024

Future-Proofing the B-52

L3Harris is upgrading critical electronic warfare systems to ensure the iconic aircrafts spectrum superiority for decades to come....

28/03/2024

Supporting the RCAF for more than 25 Years with L3Harris' WESCAM MX-Series

L3Harris' WESCAM MX-Series EO/IR systems have supported the RCAF for more than 25 years....

28/03/2024

ENCO to Add AI News Anchor to Qimera Virtual Production Set

NOVI, Mich. During the 2024 NAB Show, ENCO will be showcasing an AI-driven virtual anchor delivering live news from a realistic 3D virtual news set....

28/03/2024

Johan de Nysschen Named President and CEO of ARRI Americas

MUNICH ARRI has announced that Johan de Nysschen has been put in charge of the ARRI Americas team as president and CEO ARRI Americas Inc....

28/03/2024

Fubo Inks Carriage Deal with YES Network

NEW YORK The YES Network and FuboTV have reached a multi-year carriage agreement that will allow Fubo to launch YES in its Pro base channel plan in time for YES...

28/03/2024

Dalet to Demo AI-Enabled Production, Automation and Monetization at NAB 2024

PARIS Dalet has announced that during its 2024 NAB showcase (booth #W1713), attendees can experience firsthand Dalet's collaborative, AI-enabled workflows t...

28/03/2024

Blackmagic Design Used on 2024 Oscar Nominated Films

Blackmagic Design Used on 2024 Oscar Nominated Films Brie Clayton March 28, 2024 0 Comments Blackmagic Design congratulates the many film professional...

28/03/2024

Arkona to Introduce BLADE//master Control and Orchestration Service at NAB 2024

Arkona to Introduce BLADE//master Control and Orchestration Service at NAB 2024 Brie Clayton March 28, 2024 0 Comments New option for BLADE//runner ke...

28/03/2024

Join Maxon for NAB 2024

Join Maxon for NAB 2024 Brie Clayton March 28, 2024 0 Comments Maxon returns to NAB with presentations by artists from around the world and demos of t...

28/03/2024

Boston Conservatory to Present Center Stage Production of A Midsummer Night's Dream at The Huntington

Boston Conservatory to Present Center Stage Production of A Midsummer Night'...

28/03/2024

The 4K cameras giving audiences an astronaut's view of Earth

TVBEurope meets Charles Black, founder and CEO of Sen, which has sent a payload of 4K cameras to the ISS to livestream images of Earth to audiences around the w...

28/03/2024

2024 Big Night In Raises $145k to Support Triangle Arts Councils

Capitol Broadcasting and WRAL-TV once again proudly supported our local arts community with the broadcast of Big Night in for the Arts Thursday, March 7, 2024. ...

28/03/2024

JIC, MRC Announce Accord On Roles In Judging Measurement Companies

With more companies offering different approaches to measuring television viewing and campaign effectiveness, two of the groups that evaluate potential media bu...

28/03/2024

Hulu Added to Disney Plus App for Bundle Subscribers

The Walt Disney Co. said that it launched Hulu on Disney Plus, which makes Hulu programming available via the Disney Plus app....

28/03/2024

GroupM To Double Ad Spending On Women's Sports Programming

Giant media buyer GroupM said it plans to double its media spending on women's sports....

28/03/2024

Scripps Renews State Farm As Sponsor of Friday Night WNBA on Ion

Scripps Sports said that State Farm has signed a new multi-year agreement to continue as the title sponsor of Ion's Friday night WNBA telecasts....

28/03/2024

Elisabeth Moss, Kerry Washington Sign On for Imperfect Women' on Apple TV Plus

Elisabeth Moss and Kerry Washington will star in, and executive produce, Imperfe...

28/03/2024

Telemundo Station Group Addresses Climate Change With Month-Long Initiative

Telemundo Station Group launches the month-long climate change initiative Our Planet Thursday, March 28. The multiplatform campaign ends on Earth Day, April 22,...

28/03/2024

Circle City Broadcasting Renews Nielsen Ratings Deal

Nielsen said that Circle City Broadcasting, owner of WISH-TV in Indianapolis, has renewed its local TV measurement deal....

28/03/2024

Lionsgate Extends Deal With Seth Rogen's Point Grey Pictures

Lionsgate Television said it extended its deal with Point Grey Pictures, the production company led by Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg and James Weaver....

28/03/2024

Ariana DeBose Back as Tonys Host

Ariana DeBose returns as host of the Tony Awards Sunday, June 16, on CBS and Paramount Plus. It is her third consecutive time hosting, and it will be the 77th T...

28/03/2024

The Steve Wilkos Show' Renewed for Season 18

The Steve Wilkos Show has been renewed for its 18th season in national syndication, Tracie Wilson, executive VP, NBCUniversal Syndication Studios & E! News, sai...

28/03/2024

Sinclair Selects Embrace as Its Media Orchestration Engine

PARIS Embrace, a developer of advanced automation and orchestration software solutions, has announced that Sinclair Broadcast Group has selected Embrace's P...

28/03/2024

Nielsen and Circle City Broadcasting Renew Local TV Measurement Deal

NEW YORK Nielsen has a multi-year renewal with Circle City Broadcasting, Indianas only locally owned and operated broadcast and digital news media network, for ...

28/03/2024

JVC to Demo Its First Ever 40x Zoom PTZ Camera Series at 2024 NAB Show

LAS VEGAS JVC Professional Video has announced that it will debut its new KY-PZ540 Series PTZ Cameras with 40x zoom at 2024 NAB Show (Booth C4720)....

28/03/2024

Brightcove Launches Cloud Playout 2.0

BOSTON Brightcove has announced the launch of Cloud Playout 2.0, a platform that the company said will offer customers new ways to create linear channels, monet...

28/03/2024

NBC Sports Chicago to Air First-Ever Animated Real-Time Local Sports Telecast

The Chicago Blackhawks and NBC Sports Chicago have announced a collaboration with the NHL to bring fans the first-ever local animated real-time sports telecast....

28/03/2024

The Best News Coverage is Real, Live, Balanced, Professional

The Best News Coverage is Real, Live, Balanced, Professional Andy Marken March 28, 2024 0 Comments Hero image source News of the World, Perfect Wo...

28/03/2024

DJ Sbu makes shock return to SABC radio after almost a decade

DJ Sbu makes shock return to SABC radio after almost a decadeRevered radio host, media personality, philanthropist, and businessman DJ Sbu will finally be back ...

28/03/2024

Smoke and Mirrors: Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]

Smoke and Mirrors: Thursday's episode, 28 March 2024 [VIDEO]Stay up to date with the latest episodes of your favourite South African soapie on The South Afr...

28/03/2024

VEON Pays Back Outstanding Balance and Cancels its Revolving Credit Facility

28 Mar 2024 VEON Pays Back Outstanding Balance and Cancels its Revolving Credit Facility Amsterdam, 28 March 2024, 09.30 CET - VEON Ltd. (Nasdaq: VEON, Euronex...

28/03/2024

TNT Sports Gets Its College Game On for March Madness Audio

TNT Sports Gets Its College Game On for March Madness Audio Marching bands, crowds make up for lack of court FX and wired players By Dan Daley, Audio Editor ...

28/03/2024

Cosm/ESPN Deal Will Bring NBA, NHL, Tennis, College Football, and More to Shared Reality' Venues

Cosm/ESPN Deal Will Bring NBA, NHL, Tennis, College Football, and More to Share...

28/03/2024

MLB 2024: The Famous Group, Miami Marlins Team Up for AI-Powered Intro for All 2024 Home Games

MLB 2024: The Famous Group, Miami Marlins Team Up for AI-Powered Intro for All 2...