It seems prediction 2 is already gathering pace with Twitter launching Vine. But lets face it, this wasnt a difficult prediction to make.
The rise and rise of video online is supported by enormous investment dating back to 1999 when Victoria Secret crashed web servers streaming a fashion show. That investment gathered pace with flash player 6 in 2004 and YouTube in 2005.
Video casting morphed to Vlogging around the same time and has been a slow burner of emerging talent and content. 2012 was the year it really took off with significant dailyaudiences logging on to individual shows.
So where is this going?
Prediction 3 is taking shape.
We have one major theme from campaign. Big brands are paying big agencies stocked with producers and directors of the TV variety; to pitch programming to TV networks.
However, this is still the traditional model. What is really driving video is the disruption of traditional entertainment broadcasting models and changing advertising models alongside it.
Travel back in time to the 50s and 60s where equipment was expensive and talent was in short supply and programs came in 30 and 60 minutes scheduling.
Investment meant batch buying so pilots tested the water with audiences and advertisers. Then episodes were commissioned to ensure the big upfront investment could be spaced across time to build an audience attractive enough for further sponsors and advertisers.
Scheduling and programming was developed to hold audiences so many later shows would benefit from islands such as News and Primetime. 30 and 60 minutes made this easy and trained audiences where to be and when.
Come back to 2013. Now we have the Canon 5Ds used to shoot our Kettles videos that are accessed through a Facebook app.
Digital production costs mean we can re-purpose the content as illustration for Facebook stories now sitting in YouTube. They will probably appear through Twitters micro-videos soon. But that is the advert.
Modern TV already has audience preference determining next weeks content with X-Factor. The talent is free. But this operates on a traditional network model. Networks are where the disruption will really begin.
IPTV, ipads and appleTV means we can now watch vloggerswhile sitting back on the couch. Good Vloggers are the talent, producer, director, camera operator, lighting, marketer and programmer.
With individual vloggers having subscribers in the tens of thousands and views in the millions. YouTube now has a mentoring program to push the content.
So who pays then? Vloggersalready have advertisers like HP and even the BBC shop. The advertiser buys audiences so they probably dont know who they are advertising with.
The audience is global. The network is your internet connection. The broadcasts are a nice and digestible 10-15 minutes long. Much more suited to the now generation. The programs are accessed when the viewer wants to access it. Programming is still required but scheduling is not.
Rupert Murdochs children will face the same challenges as their father but not in print. Instead it will be in soundand motion. The only limitation is good content made by the consumer, for the consumer, paid for by advertisers by the click.
You dont need broadcasting networks anymore. You dont even need to make the programmes. You just need someone to organise great programming and even that might be taken care of thanks to Genius. Everything else is plug and play.
The development of appleTV should be less about hardware and more the programming of consumer generated episodes.
All belatedly hail the birth of video network broadcasting.
25.01.2013
By Julian Grainger
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