With the outcome of Friday's Premier League rights auction unknown, there's no doubt that Sky is facing the greatest competitive challenge in the tournament's 23-year history. Based on analysis of past inflation rates, a three-season deal could hit the £5 billion mark for the first time as BT goes in hard against its main rival. With sport a loss leader for both major players, is such a price realistic?
Ampere's analysis of the average base inflation at key stages of the Premier League's live rights auction history reveals an increase in value per game of 55 per cent to 65 per cent with each round of bidding. Taking a slightly lower figure of 50 per cent, one game would cost £9.8 million, with the total season of 168 matches valued at £1.6 billion. A three season deal would hit £4.9 billion.
Guy Bisson (pictured), research director, said: In the world of European sport, the Premier League is the ultimate luxury brand. As such, it is hardly surprising that there is a disconnect between price and direct value. Looking at the increases in fees paid at past auctions for the live rights for the Premier League gives some indication of where we can expect the price per match to be. However, as we've seen recently in the art world, prices paid at auction have a habit of surpassing even the most bullish of predictions. And like fine art, some would argue the Premier League was priceless.
Making the numbers work
Sport is already a low margin product for Sky and BT. For Sky it drives subscriptions to basic and premium TV, HD and Over-the-Top services where the real margins are made, as well as its broadband and telephony services. For BT the strategy has been about shoring up its line rental, telephony and broadband products where it has been facing aggressive and highly successful competition from Sky for a number of years.
For every TV customer, Sky spends £125 on sports, of which £89 goes to the Premier League; by comparison BT spends £209 per TV customer a year on the Premier League a whopping 134 per cent more than Sky. These numbers are also reflected in the difference in the annual ARPU: Sky's is currently £576 BT's is £391.
What Sky and BT can afford to spend and what they might have to
Ampere has pegged a most likely upper increase in cost at a 50 per cent inflation in the cost of live rights per game, meaning the next auction would raise just over £1.64 billion a season or £4.9 billion for three-year live rights.
If Sky and BT buy the same packages, and bear the same level of costs relative to one another as they do with the current contract, Sky would need to spend £1.24 billion a year, £3.7 billion for a total three-season contract. BT would need to spend £402 million a year, £1.2 billion for the total three-season contract. Based on our calculations, we believe Sky will want to spend around or slightly below £3 billion for its share, leading to a disconnect in price to value. BT will be need to be looking around the £1 billion mark, assuming the pair retain the same packages they have now.
Ampere's analysis suggests that Sky can spend £3 billion on the Premiere League three-season deal without increasing the spend per TV customer over current levels, but, based on our inflation predictions, it may well need to dig deeper. While these numbers look high, the pot of £3 billion created by future customer growth leaves it just 24 per cent short of the implied inflationary cost. Adding in inflation over the three years means the stretch cost of £3.7 billion does not look completely unrealistic.
Ampere believes that entry of a new party to the bidding process could reduce these costs by around 10 per cent for each party, based on the assumption that a new entrant would risk only one of the seven packages available. How a three-way split would work for football fans is unclear.
Full time: our call on the outcome
Bisson concludes: Ball skills will be of little use to the executives currently bidding on this season's Premier League rights renewal. The skills required will be more akin to the steel nerve and cold stare of a Las Vegas card shark.
We think it will be a stretch to cover the costs of the additional games made available this year to reach the projected upper total value for live rights of £5.2 billion to £5.4 billion for the three-year deal. £5 billion is a strong psychological barrier. Although it's not inconceivable, margins on sport are already very tight, so focus in the Board rooms during the auction will be firmly fixed on maintaining control on costs.
As a result, we expect a more sensible value of between £4.5 billion and £4.9 billion to be reached for the three-year deal, up 50 per cent per game since the least auction. That will take the per season value of the live rights to £1.65 billion, a total increase over the previous deal of 64 per cent. Even in this more modest conclusion, the recent sale of highlights to the BBC will mean that package would still exceed £5 billion at the upper end.
Most recent headlines
11/12/2025
Dalet, a leading provider of cloud-native, end-to-end media workflow solutions, ...
28/11/2025
Nadia Fall attends the 2025 Sundance Film Festival premiere of Brides at the Egyptian Theatre on January 24, 2025, in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Donyale West/...
28/11/2025
It's easy to ignore those little red update available badges. But when it ...
28/11/2025
WASHINGTON Federal Communications Commission has released a tentative agenda for the December Open Commission Meeting scheduled for Thursday, December 18, 2025 ...
28/11/2025
The Professional Fighters League is looking to super-serve fans of mixed martial...
28/11/2025
Fubo has released in beta on select Roku devices a new feature that lets users display up to four simultaneous streams at once....
28/11/2025
The WNBA playoffs and Week 4 of the NFL regular season highlight the list of live sports events airing on television this weekend....
28/11/2025
The 32nd class of honorees to the B+C Hall of Fame took to the stage at New York's Ziegfeld Ballroom on September 26 for a gala induction event. Click below...
28/11/2025
We hold in our hands the very last Next Text for Next TV, the weekly back-and-fo...
28/11/2025
DirecTV said it made a deal with EchoStar to buy EchoStar's video businesses, including satellite-TV provider Dish TV and virtual MVPD Sling TV, for $1 plus...
28/11/2025
The Broadcasting+Cable Hall of Fame, the premier industry event paying tribute to the influencers, innovators and shining lights of broadcast, cable and streami...
28/11/2025
Friday 28 November 2025
Sky Sports x Slawn drop limited-edition football jersey...
28/11/2025
Rohde & Schwarz shows resilience in a challenging environment, revenue exceeds t...
28/11/2025
Unwrapped: The Toy Show Appeal - airing this Sunday on RT One and RT Player- s...
27/11/2025
LONDON Vizrt has added several AI-driven advanced features offering improved speed, intelligence and accuracy in the newest version of its media asset managemen...
27/11/2025
Prime Video has launched AI-powered video season recaps in a beta version for select English-language Prime Original series in the U.S., a move Amazon is callin...
27/11/2025
Back to All News
Netflix's Raat Akeli Hai: The Bansal Murders Marks a Grand...
27/11/2025
27 Nov 2025
GSMA brings M360 Eurasia 2026 to Samarkand in partnership with VEON...
27/11/2025
Tahar Rahim and Izuka Hoyle star in the gripping six-part Sky Original from Acad...
27/11/2025
Thursday 27 November 2025
Sky Arts Reveals the Nation's Greatest Basslines - and Queen Reign Supreme
The UK's most iconic basslines have been revealed...
27/11/2025
Back to All News
Stranger Things 5': Prepare for One Last Adventure With O...
27/11/2025
The media industry has a paradox at its core. It's an industry built on light, color and imagination, yet behind the scenes, it's powered by one of the ...
27/11/2025
Rating reflects rating progress across areas including policies, diversity & inclusion, health & safety and Net Zero leadership
Winchester, UK, 27 November 202...
27/11/2025
What are the industry standards for Retail Media? Kathryn explains that certification is based on the IAB Europe Retail Media Measurement Standards and the IAB ...
27/11/2025
World champion boxer and Irish sporting icon Katie Taylor will be in studio this...
27/11/2025
Roblox, one of the world's most popular online gaming platforms for primary ...
27/11/2025
Black Friday is leveling up. Get ready to score one of the biggest deals of the season - 50% off the first three months of a new GeForce NOW Ultimate membership...
26/11/2025
SVG Sit-Down: Prime Video EP Mike Muriano Previews Massive Black Friday Slate Fe...
26/11/2025
A cinematic snow sculpture at the 1995 Sundance Film Festival. Photo by Randall Michelson...
26/11/2025
Book podcasts are booming. On Spotify, you'll find everything from celebrity book clubs to deep dives with bestselling authors. And in markets where audiobo...
26/11/2025
Mumbai, November 24, 2025: In a first-of-its-kind initiative, JioStar, in collab...
26/11/2025
LONDON Factual content producer ITN Productions has launched a new low-latency IP gallery for news bulletins....
26/11/2025
MIAMI TelevisaUnivision said it struck a new multiyear distribution agreement with YouTube TV that includes distribution of TelevisaUnivision's U.S. network...
26/11/2025
OpenDrives, Inc., a leader in software-defined data storage and data services, today announced the launch of the Atlas Corporate Creative Solution. This new Atl...
26/11/2025
Disguise, the industry-leading company powering the world's biggest live performances, is partnering with pioneering LED wall manufacturer DVS to give atten...
26/11/2025
HighField AI, the pioneer in agentic and multimodal automation for broadcast and media production, today announced the expansion of its global channel partner n...
26/11/2025
As high-stakes Premier League fixtures approach and additional premium content launches, with MONO positioning themselves to dominate Thailand's sports stre...
26/11/2025
Hosting a wide variety of events from high-intensity NHL games to complex live music concerts and major entertainment productions, Montreal's 21,000 capacit...
26/11/2025
Vizrt, the leader in live production technology revolutionizing viewer engagement and experience, releases AI-driven advances focusing on speed, intelligence, a...
26/11/2025
ITN Productions, an award-winning factual content producer, today launched a new low-latency IP gallery for news bulletins. Responsible for delivering a leading...
26/11/2025
Ikegami reports ongoing advances throughout 2025 in developing and delivering coordinated television production solutions that maximize quality, versatility and...
26/11/2025
Following the Nov. 21 blackout of NBCUniversal channels on Fubo, the two sides have traded barbs about their inability to reach a new carriage deal....
26/11/2025
LONDON As TV sports rights become increasingly important for both broadcasters and streamers, Ampere Analysis predicts global investment in the genre will surpa...
26/11/2025
LOS ANGELES Vubiquity said it has achieved the Amazon Web Services (AWS) Media & Entertainment Competency as part of the AWS Partner Network (APN). This designa...
26/11/2025
WASHINGTON The Federal Communications Commission's Enforcement Bureau said it has entered into a consent decree with Comcast calling for the cable company t...
26/11/2025
Berklee Named to the Hollywood Reporters Top Music Schools List The publication highlights the college's screen scoring program, industry partnerships, and ...
26/11/2025
Back to All News
Animated Series Love Through a Prism' Casts New Light on ...
26/11/2025
Back to All News
NALIP Unveils Fifth Cohort of Director Incubator
Social Impact
26 November 2025
United States
Link copied to clipboard
The National Assoc...
26/11/2025
YouView Achieves Greenly Gold Certification for SustainabilityNov 26, 2025
YouView is proud to announce a Gold Certification award from Greenly for our perform...
With the outcome of Friday's Premier League rights auction unknown, there's no doubt that Sky is facing the greatest competitive challenge in the tournament's 23-year history. Based on analysis of past inflation rates, a three-season deal could hit the £5 billion mark for the first time as BT goes in hard against its main rival. With sport a loss leader for both major players, is such a price realistic?
