With big mergers among programmers, and a continuing shift of viewing towards over-the-top, the dynamics of this year's upfront may be look somewhat different than in past years. But not too different.
B&C posed a series of questions about the upfront auctions to some of the most important media-buying executives who'll be involved in making decisions on how to spend about $21 billion of their clients' money over the next couple of months.
The biggest concern for sponsors remains the climbing price of TV commercials on a cost-per-thousand viewers (CPM) basis, even as ratings for primetime programming continue to erode.
Most of the media buyers see opportunity in the larger programming organizations that are being assembled, in part because they will have greater scale and more data, which could lead to more targeted and effective advertising.
Here are the questions we posed to these market movers, along with their answers.
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B&C: With Disney buying 21st Century Fox and AT&T digesting Time Warner, how will consolidation affect the upfront market?
Chris Geraci, president of national video investment, Omnicom Media Group: The continued consolidation in the media landscape will no doubt play some role in this year's upfront marketplace. Fundamentally, the changes in ownership will have obvious impact on who agencies and advertisers interact with when transacting with certain components of these particular companies. Consolidation will also reconfigure some of the negotiating positions and the leverage that will be brought to bear in negotiations. While these are the near-term implications that will be felt in the 2019-20 market, the longer view of consolidation should be grounded in its effect on the amount of ad-supported content available in the marketplace.
Mike Law, head of U.S. media investment, Dentsu Aegis Network: We believe that the consolidation in the marketplace creates a tremendous amount of opportunity. It delivers deeper solutions with our biggest partners, allowing us to utilize data at scale and within the most premium content. If we can fully leverage the breadth and depth of the biggest media partners, we can deliver more impactful campaigns for our clients. This results in conversations shifting beyond buyer and seller and rate of change, toward a focus on marrying together marketing and media to give brands the ultimate ability to succeed and grow.
Dave Penski, global CEO, Publicis Media Exchange: Rapid, massive media and technology consolidation and partnerships are blurring the lines between traditional and digital, and we're seeing more digital inventory become a part of upfront conversations. However, consolidation has had minimal effect on the market compared to other factors, such as new entrants in the OTT space, declining ratings and cost pressure from marketers.
Lyle Schwartz, president of investment, North America, GroupM: This year, there will be minimal impact as the combined entities are just starting to align their teams for working together. The conversations we're having are more about the resources that will be available to us in the future new products and tools that can enhance clients' messaging on their platforms within the best content. Disney, AT&T, NBCUniversal and even CBS seem to be prioritizing their streaming products.
B&C: Are you concerned that you will have fewer opportunities to put your clients' messages in the best content?
Geraci: Assuming this relates to the direct-to-consumer subscription services becoming more prevalent, there is legitimate concern that this will continue to shift viewing time away from advertising-supported content. Although the companies mentioned all seem to remain committed to their ad-supported businesses, at some point they will need to make decisions based on business results and hopefully find a balance that can deliver on both their subscribers' expectations as well as on the traditional advertising monetization of the content they produce.
Law: Not at all [concerned]. The content being delivered across streaming platforms is as premium as we find across the broader ecosystem. The challenge for us and our clients is finding the right balance between data and content to deliver an exceptional experience to consumers, and ultimately measuring the impact against business results. It is imperative that as viewership moves, our spend moves along with it.
Penski: Power is in consumers' hands more than ever before and prioritization of streaming services answers consumer demand for the ability to consume content anytime, anywhere. This does not equate to fewer opportunities to put clients' messaging out, it simply gives way to new opportunities. Viewers want quality content and, just as importantly, quality advertising experiences. Creative quality and fit for content' experiences are going to be critical to success in an increasingly crossplatform marketplace. What's most important is striking a balance between user experience and value to advertisers, which will be a continuous effort.
Schwartz: This is not a heavy concern. There is growing ad inventory in ad-supported streaming content and this provides us another way to engage brands with viewers often with enhanced data about the audience we're reaching. As more new streaming services are introduced and come online in the future, massive consumer defection from ad-supported content in favor of non-ad-supported content would create concern about our ability to reach certain audiences, especially more affluent ones. However, our access to premium ad-supported video content has only increased to this point.
B&C: Speaking of streaming, more viewing is taking place over the top and via connected TV. To what degree will these eyeballs be bought and sold in the upfront,
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With big mergers among programmers, and a continuing shift of viewing towards over-the-top, the dynamics of this year's upfront may be look somewhat different than in past years. But not too different.
