Predictions for the African audio-visual and broadcast sectors

Officially, 10 countries have now launched DTT so far; Namibia is the latest one and GOtv (DStv's DTT arm) has been active in more countries launching private DTT services. StarTimes continues its DTT expansion and is now approaching francophone territories. Today, close to 3 million households in Africa have access to DTT bouquets. But only a few DTT services offer free access to free to air channels; Most DTT services are Pay TV bouquets.

DTT requires major technical investments and African governments have quoted budgets ranging from USD 39 million (Namibia) to USD 426 million (Nigeria). In April 2013 for example, it was claimed that the Namibian Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) will receive N$411 million (US$39 m) to finance the country's migration from analogue to digital broadcasting from the Ministry of Information and Communication Technology (MICT). We have identified DTT planned investment figures for 10 African countries as part of our latest DTT report Update.

2014 predictions:

It is now time for industry players to peer deep into their market data and crystal balls to say what 2014 will bring.

When it comes to predictions, here are our views and reactions in summary form:

Digital technology sets a new economic trajectory for the African audio-visual sector: There will be more technology investments, more DTT (digital terrestrial TV migration) tests and roll-out swill occur in 2014. We will witness a growth in STBs, HDTV and DTT integrated TV sets' sales. In addition, we have identified 10 Africa-based companies that are producing affordable smartphones and tablets made in Africa (the detailed list is in our latest VoD and Africa market report).

With DTT, the potential creation of TV channels' aggregators serving African DTT bouquets exists; New TV and radio channels' bouquets will be born out of Africa. In Tanzania, there is a new kid in town', AzamTV's pay TV network. But African government are currently scratching their heads to find ways to finance DTT roll out.

Existing African broadcasters, whether in the Pay TV or FTA segments welcome the arrival of DTT in Africa with mixed feelings: audience fragmentation and more competition, low cost bouquets, further investments in digital equipment and training, etc. but also new opportunities to distribute their channels in new territories. TV broadcasters have no choice but to increase advertising revenues. To do so, they need to purchase digital equipments and get proper training in order to improve content quality, increase their audience and make DTT a success.

A few African broadcasters and telcos are setting up digital communication strategies incl. IPTV, WebTV, catch up TV, OTT, or smart TV apps.

Financial issues: several broadcast players need to find private investors to improve their programme standards and expand to other markets, with potential M&As and market consolidation (eg. StarSat, ex-top TV).

More local content, co-production, content exchanges, innovative ideas, programme translation and new content distribution channels are about to take place.

More broadband access connectivity enabling viewers to watch live TV and VoD in large cities.

VoD usage growth - more mobile video streaming in large urban areas (impact of Wi-Fi, LTE/4G), VoD apps on mobile devices.

Improved regulations towards more competition/licences, PPPs', more foreign investments, digital dividend, increase TV licence revenues through DTT switch, set up rules for better programmes' quality standards.

There are opportunities for alliances in Africa's sub-regions to share expertise, norms and best practices and facilitate DTT implementation and local content creation.

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We conducted a small experts survey within our network. Here are the most interesting 2013 wrap-ups and 2014 predictions we got:

Simbarashe Mabasha, CEO of Wabona and expert in Africa related VoD offered his perspicacious insight : As we see more and more players entering the African VoD space, one has to wonder if there is risk of a bubble. Is there enough content to service all these platforms? Only time will tell and it could turn into a platform bubble that will fragment the market. VoD services that have the best content, payment options and user experiences will survive and help consolidate the market.

Kevin Kriedemann, a South African film expert reported that For the first time in a few years, Im feeling positive about the TV sector in South Africa. Despite being in the golden age of TV internationally, the South African industry has yet to completely recover from the protracted crisis at both the South African Broadcasting Corporation, the country's public broadcaster, and the Department of Communications, which has only just set a new digital migration switch on date of 1 April 2014 - six years behind original schedule.

But this is all changing, with digital migration expected to lead to more channels, and therefore less reliance on the SABC for work. Already, 2013's seen the launch of OpenView, a new, pay-once, HD satellite platform; new channels include Mzansi Bioskop, Telemundo, True Movies1 and SABC's 24-hour news channel on DSTV; and four new e.tv channels: eKasi+, eAfrica+, eMovies+, and eToonz. Africa News Network 7 also launched, although the less said about that, the better.

Digital migration should also create bandwidth space for mobile broadband innovations, which could also create more online distribution possibilities.

Perhaps most promisingly, international broadcasters are increasingly focusing on Africa. For example, Al Jazeera launched South2North,' a weekly talk show with Redi Tlhabi; BBC launched Africa Business Report' with Lerato Mbele; and CNN is hosting Inside Africa.'

All this means were seeing people taking risks and making longer

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