Lassa virus endemic area may expand dramatically in coming decades New analysis by scientists at Scripps Research and University of Brussels finds that climate change and other factors could soon make deadly Lassa fever a much bigger public health problem in Africa
September 27, 2022
LA JOLLA, CA In the study, which appeared on September 27, 2022, in Nature Communications, scientists analyzed decades of environmental data associated with Lassa virus outbreaks, revealing temperature, rainfall and the presence of pastureland areas as key factors contributing to viral transmission. The researchers projected that areas hospitable to Lassa virus spread may extend from West Africa into Central and East Africa in the next several decades. With this expansion and expected African population growth, the human population living in the areas where the virus should in theory be able to circulate may rise by more than 600 million.
Our analysis shows how climate, land use, and population changes in the next 50 years could dramatically increase the risk of Lassa fever in Africa, says first author Rapha lle Klitting, PhD, a postdoctoral researcher at Scripps Research during the study.
Klitting is a member of the laboratory of study co-author and Scripps Research professor Kristian Andersen, PhD. The study's senior author was Simon Dellicour, PhD, of the University of Brussels.
Lassa virus is a zoonotic virus that spreads to humans from other animals in this case, the Natal multimammate rat (Mastomys natalensis), most likely via its droppings. While an estimated 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, the remaining cases are more severe, with signs and symptoms that can include hemorrhaging from the mouth and gut, low blood pressure (shock), and potentially permanent hearing loss. The fatality rate for hospitalized patients is generally high, sometimes reaching 80%.
An estimated several hundred thousand infections occur each year, chiefly in Nigeria and several other West African countries. So far there is no approved vaccine or highly effective drug treatment.
Although the primary animal reservoir for Lassa virus is known, the virus spreads in only some not all areas where these animals are present. Thus, it is possible that environmental factors also help determine whether and where significant viral transmission can occur. In the study, the researchers developed an ecological niche' model of Lassa virus transmission, using data on environmental conditions at sites of known spread.
Combining the model with projections of climate and land-use changes in Africa in the next several decades, as well as the known range of the Natal multimammate rat, the researchers estimated the areas of Africa that could support Lassa virus transmission currently, and in the years 2030, 2050, and 2070. The projected current areas corresponded well to known endemic areas in West Africa, but the estimates for future decades suggested a vast expansion within and beyond West Africa.
We found that several regions will likely become ecologically suitable for virus spread in Central Africa, including in Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and even in East Africa, in Uganda, Klitting said.
Currently Africa's population is undergoing rapid growth; the researchers therefore considered projections of this population growth for the areas of current and potential future Lassa virus circulation. They found that the number of people potentially exposed to the virus could increase from about 92 million today to 453 million by 2050, and 700 million by 2070 a more than 600% jump.
More hopefully, the researchers examined the dynamics of the spread of Lassa virus using data on sequenced viral genomes sampled at various locations in West Africa and found that virus dispersal appeared to be slow. They concluded that, unless transmission dynamics change drastically in the new location where the virus circulates, the virus's spread into new ecologically suitable areas in the coming decades may also be slow.
The authors say that the findings should inform African public health policies, for example, by encouraging officials to add Lassa virus to lists of viruses under epidemiologic surveillance in parts of Central and East Africa.
The study is also the result of an inter-disciplinary approach involving molecular and evolutionary analyses as well as ecological and climate modelling.
With the ongoing climate change and increasing impact of human activities on the environment, further comprehensive studies of the ecology and spread of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases are needed to anticipate possible future changes in their distribution as well as their impact on public health, Dellicour says.
The study, Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades, was funded by the National Institutes of Health (U01AI151812, R01AI153044, U19AI135995), the European Union, the Wellcome Trust, the German Federal Ministry of Health, the Global Health Protection Program, the German Research Foundation, the Research Foundation Flanders, and the Belgian Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique.
Infectious Diseases Immunology & Microbiology Andersen, Kristian
Most recent headlines
05/01/2027
Worlds first 802.15.4ab-UWB chip verified by Calterah and Rohde & Schwarz to be ...
06/09/2026
June 9 2026, 23:00 (PDT) Dolby and MagentaTV Bring Fans Closer to the FIFA Worl...
04/08/2026
Dalet, a leading technology and service provider for media-rich organizations, t...
04/07/2026
April 7 2026, 19:00 (PDT) Detective Conan: Fallen Angel of the Highway Opens in...
10/06/2026
DAZN-owned digital-media company launches three fan-first series leaning into cr...
10/06/2026
Clear-Com has announced the appointment of Jason Dino as Southwest Regional Sales Manager USA, covering Southern California and the Southwest region. Dino joins...
10/06/2026
An 11% decrease in number of global broadcast deals reflects the organization...
10/06/2026
The Women Without Boundaries Awards recognize women whose work is advancing the future of media, broadcast, AV, workplace technology, digital experience, and re...
10/06/2026
Today is match day minus two for FIFA and HBS. On Thursday, there will be two ma...
10/06/2026
SES is supporting broadcast distribution of the world's biggest football tou...
10/06/2026
NDI has announced that BirdDog has become the first hardware manufacturer to achieve full NDI 6.3 compatibility across its complete lineup of cameras, encoders,...
10/06/2026
Vince Caputo and Scott Carter, winners of the 2026 Sports Emmy for Outstanding Post Produced Audio have been announced as presenters for the 2026 SVG Advanced A...
10/06/2026
FOX One today unveiled a slate of new product features and enhancements designed to elevate the viewing experience for fans on the official streaming platform o...
10/06/2026
Primary production partners Dome Productions and Raycom Sports once again played...
10/06/2026
The Women in Sports Filmmaking Experienceship is an immersive professional devel...
10/06/2026
The league has expanded its HSAN architecture for the NBA Finals to manage more ...
10/06/2026
The inaugural MoonPay X Games League (XGL) Winter Draft will take place Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at Cosm Los Angeles from 7-9 p.m. PT. The event will strea...
10/06/2026
The University of Oklahoma (OU) Athletics Department and Learfield have announce...
10/06/2026
The Video Services Forum (VSF) has released TR-06-4 Part 8, a new specification for RIST Satellite-Hybrid: Out-of-Band Method. The specification creates a mecha...
10/06/2026
Riedel Communications provided the communications infrastructure for the 14th World Live Neurovascular Conference (WLNC) in Lisbon, supporting live medical proc...
10/06/2026
A still from The Doom Generation by Gregg Araki (Courtesy of Sundance Institute)
By Lucy Spicer
Have you checked out our Sundance Film Festival 101 list yet...
10/06/2026
Get Hands-On with Interfaces & Mic Preamp Brands
If youre after a new interface or preamp, then GearExpo UK is the place to be! Well have a whole host of au...
10/06/2026
November 13-14 2026, The Midway, San Francisco
Following their recent rebranding, MONO Music Conference (formerly Music Expo) have officially announced thei...
10/06/2026
Debut instrument free for limited time
deFORM is the debut release from newly founded developer ebbandflow, and it's being offered as a free download fo...
10/06/2026
Alone Australia Season 4: Meet the Cast
10 June, 2026
Media releases
WATCH THE TRAILER
Smash-hit survival series Alone Australia drops its highly anticipa...
10/06/2026
DEADLY THEN, DEADLY NOW, DEADLY ALWAYS: SBS & NITV IGNITE NAIDOC WEEK 2026 WITH ...
10/06/2026
Rohde & Schwarz and TRUMPF advance laser-based drone defense with THORIS LCS Rohde & Schwarz is showcasing THORIS at ILA 2026: A sovereign, end to end counter...
10/06/2026
MAHLE and Rohde & Schwarz develop application for sensor testing of modern drive...
10/06/2026
Production and Development Funding supports the creation of compelling, commercially viable, artistic and culturally relevant South African screen content. Deve...
10/06/2026
Media buyers and sellers can now compare YouTube reach from computer, mobile, an...
10/06/2026
Accedo, Humans not Robots, and the Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET) have announced the launch of Ecoflow X. Formerly an IBC Accelerator project, ...
10/06/2026
Frequency, the engine powering the world's leading streaming television channels, today announced that James Smith has joined the company as General Manager...
10/06/2026
At the 14th World Live Neurovascular Conference (WLNC) in Lisbon, Riedel Communications provided the communications infrastructure for live medical procedures s...
10/06/2026
Globecast, a leading provider of broadcast, media, and entertainment managed services, today announced the launch of its Content Exchange platform powered by Or...
10/06/2026
Klvr will showcase how venues, integrators and production teams are rethinking disposable battery usage at InfoComm 2026 (Las Vegas, June 17-19, booth #N6311). ...
10/06/2026
The Video Services Forum (VSF) has further enhanced the Reliable Internet Streaming Transport (RIST) protocol by incorporating a new feature, RIST Satellite-Hyb...
10/06/2026
Share
Copy link
Facebook
X
Linkedin
Bluesky
Email...
10/06/2026
10 Jun 2026
VEON's Banglalink Brings Every World Cup 2026 Match to Football...
10/06/2026
Wednesday 10 June 2026
How to watch every ICC Women's T20 World Cup 2026 match live on Sky Sports
Where is the ICC Women's T20 World Cup 2026 availabl...
10/06/2026
Wednesday 10 June 2026
P RLA brings first-ever Beautifully Clean Oral Care'...
10/06/2026
Wednesday 10 June 2026
Sky reveals pulse-pounding first teaser trailer for upco...
10/06/2026
Wuppertal June 10, 2026
Riedel Artist at the Heart of the 14th World Live Neurovascular ConferenceAt the 14th World Live Neurovascular Conference (WLNC) in Li...
10/06/2026
Back to All News
Netflix Showcases New Mobile Experience, Collections and Games Vision in APAC
Product
10 June 2026
GlobalSouth KoreaJapan
Link copied to c...
10/06/2026
Back to All News
Ready to Join? The Netflix Fan Club Arrives at Cannes Lions
Business
10 June 2026
Global
Link copied to clipboard
Download all assets
N...
10/06/2026
Chemists snap together complex 3D molecules from highly reactive radicals-without losing their shape Scripps Research team develops stereoretentive radical-radi...
09/06/2026
Kiswe announces an expanded long-term partnership with ONE Championship (ONE), t...
09/06/2026
SiriusXM will broadcast FOX Sports' English-language commentary for all 104 FIFA World Cup 2026 matches from June 11 through July 19, available to subscribe...
09/06/2026
EVS has announced it is changing its corporate name from EVS Broadcast Equipment to EVS, reflecting the company's expanded portfolio beyond broadcast equipm...
09/06/2026
Fox Corporation and the NFL have announced a multi-year agreement to bring NFL c...
Lassa virus endemic area may expand dramatically in coming decades New analysis by scientists at Scripps Research and University of Brussels finds that climate change and other factors could soon make deadly Lassa fever a much bigger public health problem in Africa
