
A better way to predict a patient's risk of coronary artery disease Scripps Research scientists developed a model that more accurately identifies patients at risk of coronary artery disease and can inform tailored treatment.
April 16, 2025
LA JOLLA, CA Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death in the United States. Although effective preventative treatments exist, these measures are often underutilized, in part because people don't know they're at risk of CAD until it's too late.
Now, scientists at the Scripps Research Translational Institute have developed a machine learning model that more accurately estimates a patient's risk of CAD compared to the standard clinical practice, which is based primarily on age. The findings, published in Nature Medicine on April 16, 2025, leveraged data that spanned 10 years. Their new model is personalized and integrates factors including genetics, lifestyle and medical history, enabling clinicians to provide patients with advice and preventative treatment tailored to their individual needs.
I think more precise and personalized risk prediction could motivate patients to engage in early prevention, says senior author Ali Torkamani, PhD, professor and director of Genomics and Genome Informatics at the Scripps Research Translational Institute. Our model first predicts the risk that a person will develop CAD, and then it provides information to allow personalized intervention.
CAD is caused by a buildup of plaque in the heart's arteries, which then blocks blood supply. Many people don't realize they have CAD until they experience a heart attack, but the disease is cumulative the earlier treatment begins, the more effective it will be.
We tend to observe bad outcomes for CAD in patients who are in their mid-50s and older, but the disease actually begins to develop much earlier, sometimes even while people are teenagers. Theres a lot of room for us to take action, says first author Shang-Fu Shaun' Chen, a former doctoral student in Torkamani's group.
To enable more accurate CAD risk prediction, Torkamani's team set out to create a model that incorporates factors beyond age, including genetic predisposition, lifestyle and medical history. They used data from the UK Biobank to train a machine learning model to recognize factors associated with CAD. Then, they tested the model on longitudinal data from a different cohort of individuals within the Biobank to see whether it could predict their risk of developing CAD over the course of 10 years based on their baseline data.
The model started with around 2,000 predictive features that could factor into CAD risk, but the team eventually whittled this list down to 53 risk factors. These included physical measurements, blood biomarkers, family medical history, mental illness, sleep duration and the presence of specific gene variants.
The new model outperformed the standard clinical model and enabled the prediction of two times as many CAD events. After 10 years of follow-up, 62.9% of individuals that the model categorized as being at highest risk had developed CAD, compared to only 0.3% of individuals in the lowest risk group.
The new model is personalized and integrates factors including genetics, lifestyle and medical history, enabling clinicians to provide patients with advice and preventative treatment tailored to their individual needs. Credit: Scripps Research Compared to traditional clinical tools, the new model improved risk classification for approximately one in four individuals helping to better identify those truly at risk while avoiding unnecessary concern for those who are not, said Chen.
The model's accuracy was partially due to its better ability to predict CAD in groups of people who are usually categorized as low risk, such as younger individuals and women.
Our model can pick up individuals who would be considered at low risk of CAD due to their age, but who are actually high risk due to their underlying genetics, says Torkamani.
Though the model's accuracy depended on the inclusion of multiple factors, the team showed that genetic predisposition was by far the strongest predictor of CAD risk. This included not only genetic predisposition for CAD itself, but also for related conditions such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol and diabetes.
The higher your genetic risk for one of those traits high cholesterol levels or high blood pressure levels or high diabetes risk the greater benefit you get from intervening on that particular aspect through medication or lifestyle changes, says Torkamani.
When the team validated the model using the National Institutes of Health All of Us dataset which includes more diverse populations than the UK Biobank they showed it was able to predict CAD risk equally well for people with European, African and Hispanic ancestries.
Now, the researchers are planning a long-term clinical trial to test whether informing patients of their risk of CAD can help prevent the disease.
We think the most important thing is for patients to be aware of their individual risks so that they can receive the appropriate treatments and make lifestyle changes, says Chen.
In addition to Torkamani and Chen, authors of the study, Meta-Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Risk, include Hossein J. Sadaei, Ahmed Khattab, Corneliu Henegar, Nathan E. Wineinger and Evan D. Muse of Scripps Research; Sang Eun Lee of University of Ulsan College of Medicine; Jun-Bean Park of Seoul National University Hospital; and Jei-Fu Chen of Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center.
This work was supported by funding from the National Institutes of Health (R01HG010881 and UM1TR004407) and the Scripps Research HPC team, including JC Ducom and Lisa Dong.
Heart Disease Torkamani, Ali
Most recent headlines
05/01/2027
Worlds first 802.15.4ab-UWB chip verified by Calterah and Rohde & Schwarz to be ...
01/06/2026
January 6 2026, 05:30 (PST) Dolby Sets the New Standard for Premium Entertainment at CES 2026
Throughout the week, Dolby brings to life the latest innovatio...
02/05/2026
Dalet, a leading technology and service provider for media-rich organizations, t...
01/05/2026
January 5 2026, 18:30 (PST) NBCUniversal's Peacock to Be First Streamer to ...
01/04/2026
January 4 2026, 18:00 (PST) DOLBY AND DOUYIN EMPOWER THE NEXT GENERATON OF CREATORS WITH DOLBY VISION
Douyin Users Can Now Create And Share Videos With Stun...
04/03/2026
Lega Basket Serie A (LBA), the governing body for Italy's premier basketball...
04/03/2026
Wrexham AFC co-chairmen Rob Mac and Ryan Reynolds will host a first-of-its-kind ...
04/03/2026
The countdown is underway and with just 100 days to go until the world's greatest sporting event begins on Thurs., June 11, FOX Sports, America's Englis...
04/03/2026
No matter where they are in the world, service members and veterans can stream N...
04/03/2026
Telemundo officially releases Somos M s, the anthem for the network's cove...
04/03/2026
The Hollywood Professional Association (HPA) concluded the 2026 HPA Tech Retreat, convening more than 800 industry leaders, technologists, creatives, and execut...
04/03/2026
Smith Entertainment Group transformed how local sports are consumed by creating ...
04/03/2026
The production method, which spans a distance of 36.2 miles, was designed and im...
04/03/2026
Haivision, a global provider of mission-critical, real-time video networking and...
04/03/2026
When Hugues Meyrath came out of retirement to take the helm as CEO of Quantum, i...
04/03/2026
Last week's launch of Banana Ball Championship League has spurred a significant upgrade of production facilities
The Savannah Bananas, arguably the hottest...
04/03/2026
sldkfjsdlfkjsldkfjsldkjfslkdjfslkdjfsl
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus...
04/03/2026
For many fans, a song's backstory can be just as compelling as the final pro...
04/03/2026
In 2006, Spotify was founded on the belief that technology could bring artists a...
04/03/2026
Spotify is back on the ground for the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, and we...
04/03/2026
Spotify had an energizing week in Sydney, Australia, filled with powerful conver...
04/03/2026
Earlier this year, we launched Directed By, a documentary-style series that pull...
04/03/2026
100 Days to Go: SBS Unveils World Class Team for The Greatest Show on Earth -The...
04/03/2026
KT and Rohde & Schwarz to showcase AI-enhanced radio transmission performance In a joint 6G AI proof-of-concept demonstration, the CMX500 one-box tester from ...
04/03/2026
Share
Copy link
Facebook
X
Linkedin
Bluesky
Email...
04/03/2026
Luxembourg, 3 March 2026 - SES S.A. has today published its 2025 Annual Report, following the announcement of the company's full year financial results for ...
04/03/2026
Share
Copy link
Facebook
X
Linkedin
Bluesky
Email...
04/03/2026
Share
Copy link
Facebook
X
Linkedin
Bluesky
Email...
04/03/2026
Luxembourg, March 3, 2026 - SES, a leading space solutions company, along with I...
04/03/2026
Wednesday 4 March 2026
Sky Sports unveils plans for 2026 Formula 1 coverage
Sky Sports is preparing for one of the most highly anticipated F1 seasons in recen...
04/03/2026
Back to All News
Bloodhounds' Season 2 Gears Up for April 3 Premiere with ...
04/03/2026
Back to All News
Netflix Ads Suite Expands Capabilities
Business
04 March 2026
GlobalUnited States
Link copied to clipboard
After launching the Netflix Ad...
04/03/2026
Scripps Research welcomes healthcare innovator Joe Kiani to the Board of Directors Kiani brings decades of experience in patient safety and public service.
Mar...
04/03/2026
Nanoparticle vaccine approach takes on a new target: Hepatitis C virus Scripps Research scientists reengineer critical proteins on the surface of HCV, paving th...
03/03/2026
Beyond Sports, a Sony group company, and LIV Golf, the world's golf league, ...
03/03/2026
Ilitch Sports + Entertainment announces the launch of Detroit SportsNet (DSN), a year-round broadcast home for two of Detroit's franchises. With flexible op...
03/03/2026
Advanced Systems Group, LLC (ASG), a technology and services provider for media ...
03/03/2026
The PGA of America, NBC Sports and USA Sports extend their media rights agreemen...
03/03/2026
AI device ecosystem company HONOR enters into a strategic technical collaboratio...
03/03/2026
Cleveland's Telos Alliance, pioneers in broadcast technology for 30 years, l...
03/03/2026
The MD 9235 microphone head for wireless handhelds has been a firm favorite with many engineers and artists for its ability to cut through high on-stage levels ...
03/03/2026
Haivision Systems Inc. (Haivision), a global provider of mission-critical, real-...
03/03/2026
Broadcast Management Group (BMG) announces the expansion of its 62,000-square-fo...
03/03/2026
Maroon 5's musical tour in 2025 marked a leap forward in live audio as Monitor Engineer Dave Rupsch utilized Sennheiser's all-digital Spectera wireless ...
03/03/2026
Designed specifically for pro basketball, the renovated space at Gainbridge Fiel...
03/03/2026
As part of the move, former CEO Phillipp Lawo joins the broadcast-tech provider's Supervisory Board
Lawo has announced appointment of Jamie Dunn as chief e...
03/03/2026
A team of legendary announcers and analysts and a classic graphics look will bring the past to life
NBC Sports and Peacock will return to yesteryear for tonigh...
03/03/2026
From April 30 to May 3, Sundance Film Festival: CDMX 2026 will offer a selection of exciting independent cinema.
Mexico City, March 3, 2026 - At a moment of he...
03/03/2026
For many, finding time or headspace to pick up a book can feel out of reach, but...