Demand for TV Keeps Dollars Flat as Ratings Continue to Fall

WHY THIS MATTERS: With ratings down, some networks are looking to change the way the sell advertising in the upfront.

Fast as the television world is changing, TV advertising is slowly but surely following along.

As the networks completed their upfront presentations last week, media buyers said much of what would happen next would follow familiar patterns. But there was also a need to pursue viewers in new ways, generate additional attention and experiment with the data and technology that is revolutionizing other areas of the business.

Television is still relevant, said Andy Donchin, chief investment officer at Aegis Dentsu Network's Carat. Even though ratings continue to erode, the average person still watched close to four hours of TV a day, and a lot of what they're watching is live, which is why I think TV has held up so strong and been so resilient.

But money is migrating to follow viewers who are increasingly watching on-demand or over-the-top. And for the TV market, flat is the new up and a little bit down may be pretty good.

We still haven't got all our budgets in, but I think demand is going to be healthy, Donchin said. To me, even if demand is down single digits, that's still a healthy demand for a medium that some people thought wouldn't be around in 2018.

In a new report, Pivotal Research senior analyst Brian Wieser said he expected digital advertising to grow nearly 20% in 2018, but national television to be down 1% to $44.1 billion. The TV industry books about 75% of its ad sales in the upfront market.

At a national level, after initially seeing some growth, we now think the first quarter was probably slightly less than flat and expect a slight decline during the year, said Wieser, who sees national TV spending falling another 2.3% to $43.1 billion in 2019.

Pushing Back

For the networks, a downward spiral in advertising revenue is no sign of a good business, so to various degrees, they're looking to shake things up with new formats, new metrics, new technology and new promises of greater performance.

Linda Yaccarino, NBCUniversal chairman for ad sales and client partnerships, at NBCUs upfront presentation.

Aren't we tired of letting inertia rule our industry? NBCUniversal chairman for ad sales and client partnerships Linda Yaccarino asked at NBCU's presentation at Radio City Music Hall on Monday.

To keep ad dollars from going to digital, Yaccarino promised measurement that counted viewers across platforms, privacy-protected data and brand-safe content. A lot of companies simply can't guarantee that, she said. But we can and we do. So is TV a big investment? You bet your ass it is. Like I said, we're in the results business.

Donna Speciale, president of ad sales at Turner and another evangelist for advanced advertising, told clients how Turner had reduced the ads in its entertainment networks and would do so at CNN next.

Our fans move seamlessly across our omnichannel universe and our partnerships must reflect how people consume today, she said in the Hulu Theater at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday.

To reach these fans you must buy differently, Speciale said. And we will make it simple for you. This upfront we will create one unified plan to buy all of our audiences across all of our platforms. You can target by demo or by audience segment.

Using data to target by audience has already worked in hundreds of campaign for brands including MassMutual, Warner Bros. and Gatorade, she said. Our industry spends a lot of time talking about the future but talk isn't action and we're not changing fast enough.

The pitch was a bit different at Carnegie Hall, where CBS chairman and CEO Les Moonves took time out from the boardroom battle with Shari Redstone, the company's major shareholder, and got a standing ovation before reminding clients that broadcast was still powerful.

At CBS, we work with you to achieve shared objectives, Jo Ann Ross, CBS's president and chief advertising revenue officer, said.

We agree that we must work together to achieve the right balance between commercials and content, she added. Unlike those that are focused on commercial loads, we do not believe that advertising is ruining the television business.

At CBS, we're unapologetic about the power of advertising and about the premium environment and the incredible value that we already provide for viewers and for you, our clients, Ross said, adding that CBS also sees the value in over-the-top streaming.

Today we're open for business with new subscribers and exclusive first-party data, Ross said. Come on people you knew you weren't getting out of here without a data pitch.

CBS unveiled CBS DNA, its latest data-enabled TV product. DNA will use data to better understand our audience, to activate your campaigns and to provide analytics and attribution you seek, Ross said. Whether you buy on mass-reach demos, an optimized target or one-to-one addressability, CBS has the solution and we guarantee it.

Guarantee This

Fox President of Ad Revenue Joe Marchese at the networks upfront.

Joe Marchese, Fox's president of ad revenue, pushed back against the notion that the networks should guarantee sales results when they sell advertising.

Marchese described how successful a T-Mobile campaign was during the World Series.

So why don't we just guarantee the results? he asked. It seems popular these days for media vendors of all sorts to start guaranteeing sales outcomes. Forget that they have no idea what your product or your pricing or competitive market is going to be.

I've never understood how anyone can promise you sales outcomes and then also work with your competitors, Marchese said. What we can promise is the greatest opportunity and environment to engage an audience. That

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